Thursday, October 31, 2013

NIFTY AMA



NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H – AMA
6293
6279
5 L - AMA
6211
6191
5 AMA
6284
6273
13 AMA
6278
6294
21 AMA
6267
6256
34 AMA
6224
6281
89 AMA
5900
5823
144 AMA
5907
5853


NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :         6225 - 6275
RESISTANCE :   6300 - 6339


Nifty has broken above the 13AMA but it remains an unconvincing breakout. We need an additional confirmation with market sustaining it's momentum post expiry in the new series. All the 3 crucial AMA's i.e. 13, 21 & 34 AMA have risen and come near the 6225 - 6295 zone. That is pretty close to the closing price of Nifty in today's session. Therefore, the breakout remains unconvincing and needs additional confirmation by showing follow up buying and maintain it's momentum. A breakdown below all the 3 crucial AMA's will be negative and can be used as a shorting opportunity for target towards the rising 89 & 144AMA.
Market has now taken support from the 21 & 34AMA band for the second time. Will it be 3rd time lucky?? Let's wait and watch.


Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!

 

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

NIFTY AMA



NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H - AMA
6235
6208
5 L - AMA
6157
6130
5 AMA
6218
6195
13 AMA
6257
6285
21 AMA
6235
6218
34 AMA
6205
6266
89 AMA
5884
5807
144 AMA
5897
5845


NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :         6200 - 6235
RESISTANCE :   6257 - 6285


Nifty is still neutrally poised with the breakout points clear. Break above 13AMA would lead Nifty towards it's all time highs whereas break below the cluster support zone of 21 & 34AMA would dampen any prospects of a rally towards new highs and would lead to the start of the much awaited correction. Tomorrow is expiry and the crucial FOMC meet. Diwali is not too far away. Markets may dilly dally till then. If History repeats itself then we may be in for a top at Diwali.


Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!








 

NIFTY AMA



NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H - AMA
6210
6197
5 L - AMA
6095
6085
5 AMA
6170
6140
13 AMA
6242
6280
21 AMA
6205
6180
34 AMA
6191
6257
89 AMA
5870
5793
144 AMA
5890
5837


NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :          6180 - 6205
RESISTANCE :    6242 - 6280


Nifty having thrown aside the outcome post RBI policy, rallied with a vengeance and crushed all bears with a 100++ point rally. Markets are close to it's previous highs and the rally stalled today at the 80% retracement of the previous fall. The AMA table shows that although Nifty is again above the 21 & 34AMA it is yet below the 13AMA.
At this juncture, it is a wait n watch till clear signals emerge. Have to wait n see whether market breaks above the 13AMA or breaks down below the 21 & 34AMA. Markets are waiting for another event i.e. Expiry and FOMC meet on Thursday. Have to wait for Nifty to lead and give us directions. We just have to follow.


Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!









 

Monday, October 28, 2013

NIFTY AMA




NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H - AMA
6197
6196
5 L - AMA
6116
6106
5 AMA
6125
6115
13 AMA
6227
6267
21 AMA
6182
6154
34 AMA
6180
6250
89 AMA
5856
5782
144 AMA
5881
5830


NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :         5780 - 5880
RESISTANCE :   6180 - 6230


Nifty after a series of Doji formation finally gave a breakdown and formed a bearish engulfing candlestick in today's trading session. The AMA table had however already given us the signal to go short on break of 13AMA and then the confluence band of 21 & 34AMA.

Tomorrow is the RBI policy event, followed by the FOMC meet and expiry on Thursday. So it's an eventful week. Even a positive RBI outcome should be used to create short positions as the trend is clearly down as per the AMA table. Preferred shorting zone is the near the critical resistance zone of 6180 as shown by the AMA table. Shorts created already on break of 13AMA should be held.

Target on the downside is towards the 89 & 144AMA zone.



Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!






 

Friday, October 25, 2013

NIFTY AMA



NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H - AMA
6275
6275
5 L - AMA
6190
6206
5 AMA
6215
6227
13 AMA
6233
6252
21 AMA
6166
6135
34 AMA
6153
6210
89 AMA
5837
5767
144 AMA
5867
5820


NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :         6135 - 6155
RESISTANCE :   6200 - 6230


Nifty has been consistently making bearish candlestick patterns at it's all time highs. It formed a gravestone doji in today's trading session.  Nifty broke below the upper band of 34AMA and is now sitting right at the 21AMA and lower band of 34AMA. This zone of 6130 - 6150 is extremely crucial and a break below it would lead to a fall in markets which will target the 89 & 144AMA's towards 5850.
The AMA table gave us an early cautionary signal and aggressive shorts were advised on break below 13AMA. Conservative shorts can be added on break of mentioned support zone below which markets will gather momentum on the downside.

A retracement of the fall from 6252 is possible towards the upper band of 34AMA where shorts can be created with sl of 13AMA.


Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!






 

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

NIFTY AMA



NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H - AMA
6265
6272
5 L - AMA
6185
6190
5 AMA
6248
6266
13 AMA
6220
6225
21 AMA
6152
6123
34 AMA
6130
6175
89 AMA
5825
5758
144 AMA
5860
5812


NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :         6120 - 6150
RESISTANCE :   6220-  6225


Nifty having formed an inside day yesterday, fell heavily only to recover in the second half of the day from our support zone of 6100 - 6130 mentioned in yesterday's post. Nifty has given an early cautionary signal by closing below the 13AMA which has moved up to the resistance of 6220 - 6225. Support has now moved up to the 6120 - 6150 zone. So a move below today's low would dent this uptrend and make way for fresh downside.
The RBI policy is due next week and the VIX has taken support at it's 200DMA.
Nifty is at a crucial juncture and a clear picture should emerge in the next few sessions.


Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!







 

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

NIFTY AMA



NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H - AMA
6250
6240
5 L - AMA
6188
6165
5 AMA
6232
6220
13 AMA
6199
6195
21 AMA
6133
6110
34 AMA
6100
6130
89 AMA
5812
5748
144 AMA
5850
5805


NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :         6100 - 6130
RESISTANCE :   6220 - 6250


Nifty formed an inside day, after the Doji it formed yesterday. Nifty failed to show follow up buying and has not picked up momentum post the huge rally.
The AMA table lays it down pretty clearly. The 13AMA has now risen all the way towards 6200. Now it's absolutely important for Nifty to hold onto the 6200 level. A break below 6200 on closing basis would be the first cautionary signal that the uptrend has weakened and we may possibly be in for a change of trend. Additional confirmation would be obtained on breaking the confluence of 21 & 34 AMA which are now at 6100 - 6130. Breaking of these bands and closing below them will confirm the change in trend and shorts may be added aggressively.
Aggressive traders may even create shorts on break below 13AMA. Keep in mind that these AMA's are in rising mode and will rise in the days to come.

Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!