The shift in trend and momentum has taken place as had been mentioned previously. Those holding longs can book their handsome profits and re-enter at lower levels.
Our positional target of 5900+ remains !!!
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Nifty Update
The shift in trend and momentum has taken place as had been mentioned previously. Those holding longs can book their handsome profits and re-enter at lower levels.
Our positional target of 5900+ remains !!!
Friday, June 24, 2011
Nifty Update
WHAT A RALLY !!! NIFTY UP 150...
Markets did today what it does always. SURPRISE EVERYONE!!
While most of the people and analysts on the street were bearish, markets caught them unexpectedly and off guard with a stupendous upmove crossing all the so called resistances.
The triggers for the upmove came on back of the fall in BRENT Crude prices after announcement by IEA ( International Energy Agency ) of releasing upto 60mn barrels over a period of 30days in the market. This is a huge positive for our markets. ( our refineries are benchmarked to BRENT) and on the news of some reforms being undertaken by EGOM on diesel , kerosene and natural gas prices. That may or may not happen !!!
Markets look overbought in the near term and may face some resistance at the 5500 odd mark and support at 5400 after such a rally. My earlier view and bias remains positive with the same target. However, 2 cases now seem to be developing.
1st case : (Bullish)
Markets have reversed its trend and may rally to 5700 and then 5900+ having protected 5170.
2nd case : (Bearish)
If Nifty is unable to cross 5720+/- , then we may see the markets breaking down towards 5000 odd levels.
My bias remains upwards. However, we will position ourselves as the prices unfold.
Those who are long may continue holding their longs as of now. Enjoy!!!
Markets did today what it does always. SURPRISE EVERYONE!!
While most of the people and analysts on the street were bearish, markets caught them unexpectedly and off guard with a stupendous upmove crossing all the so called resistances.
The triggers for the upmove came on back of the fall in BRENT Crude prices after announcement by IEA ( International Energy Agency ) of releasing upto 60mn barrels over a period of 30days in the market. This is a huge positive for our markets. ( our refineries are benchmarked to BRENT) and on the news of some reforms being undertaken by EGOM on diesel , kerosene and natural gas prices. That may or may not happen !!!
Markets look overbought in the near term and may face some resistance at the 5500 odd mark and support at 5400 after such a rally. My earlier view and bias remains positive with the same target. However, 2 cases now seem to be developing.
1st case : (Bullish)
Markets have reversed its trend and may rally to 5700 and then 5900+ having protected 5170.
2nd case : (Bearish)
If Nifty is unable to cross 5720+/- , then we may see the markets breaking down towards 5000 odd levels.
My bias remains upwards. However, we will position ourselves as the prices unfold.
Those who are long may continue holding their longs as of now. Enjoy!!!
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Nifty Update
Nifty makes FLASH LOW of 5195.....5170 protected !!!
Markets tumbled upto 600 points intraday on news of changes in tax agreement treaty with Mauritius, source of over 40% for India's total FDI. Nifty made intra low of 5195. However, our level of 5170 was not breached. So our longs still stand. The markets are extremely oversold and a bounceback of atleast 200 points in nifty can be possible.
Several positives have started emerging for the Indian economy in this fall. Lets take a look at the reasons as to why the markets may rally.
1. Inflation has been the biggest concern for the Indian markets. With Crude coming off over 20% from its highs it will provide the much needed relief to our markets.
Every 1$/bbl change in the price of crude affects our trade deficit by US $800mn and our gross under recoveries by US $700mn. So crude oil prices coming off is a big positive.
2. Commodity prices have come off and started to cool off with fears of lower demand for them due to a lower than expected global growth esp US and Europe.
3. Better than average monsoon will improve investor sentiment and cool off food prices (atleast temporarily) and bring down inflation.
4. Our markets have underperformed other markets. A bounce back is quite clearly due.
And the most important of them all.
5. In the case, that Korea and Taiwan are redesignated as "DM", India could be a beneficiary.
When there was an upgrade of Korea to DM in 2009 and as a result India saw net estimated passive inflow of $234mn, while estimated active funds flows were $934mn. The total India weight increased by 116bps in the MSCI index. Keep an eye on the meeting today.
If it does happen huge rally will take place. The stage is set for it !!!
My View : Hold onto your longs. Until 5170 is not broken. We may see markets rallying atleast 10% from these levels. Sentiment is extremely pessimistic.
Markets tumbled upto 600 points intraday on news of changes in tax agreement treaty with Mauritius, source of over 40% for India's total FDI. Nifty made intra low of 5195. However, our level of 5170 was not breached. So our longs still stand. The markets are extremely oversold and a bounceback of atleast 200 points in nifty can be possible.
Several positives have started emerging for the Indian economy in this fall. Lets take a look at the reasons as to why the markets may rally.
1. Inflation has been the biggest concern for the Indian markets. With Crude coming off over 20% from its highs it will provide the much needed relief to our markets.
Every 1$/bbl change in the price of crude affects our trade deficit by US $800mn and our gross under recoveries by US $700mn. So crude oil prices coming off is a big positive.
2. Commodity prices have come off and started to cool off with fears of lower demand for them due to a lower than expected global growth esp US and Europe.
3. Better than average monsoon will improve investor sentiment and cool off food prices (atleast temporarily) and bring down inflation.
4. Our markets have underperformed other markets. A bounce back is quite clearly due.
And the most important of them all.
5. In the case, that Korea and Taiwan are redesignated as "DM", India could be a beneficiary.
When there was an upgrade of Korea to DM in 2009 and as a result India saw net estimated passive inflow of $234mn, while estimated active funds flows were $934mn. The total India weight increased by 116bps in the MSCI index. Keep an eye on the meeting today.
If it does happen huge rally will take place. The stage is set for it !!!
My View : Hold onto your longs. Until 5170 is not broken. We may see markets rallying atleast 10% from these levels. Sentiment is extremely pessimistic.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Nifty Update
Markets have been sluggish for quite a few days now with nifty drifting lower to factor in a price and time correction. The 5340 to 5320 level remain the crucial support levels for the market beyond which stands the all important level of 5170.
Price volume trend of nifty suggests accumulation by smart money at current levels.
Hardly anyone now out there expects the market to break the 5600 resistance. The sentiment is bearish.
Nifty has narrowed its range and may oscillate between 5350 and 5450 for the time being. Break of the range will give a good move and an early indication of change in trend and momentum.
Till then trade as per levels.
Price volume trend of nifty suggests accumulation by smart money at current levels.
Hardly anyone now out there expects the market to break the 5600 resistance. The sentiment is bearish.
Nifty has narrowed its range and may oscillate between 5350 and 5450 for the time being. Break of the range will give a good move and an early indication of change in trend and momentum.
Till then trade as per levels.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Nifty Update
The markets have been absolutely range bound for the past few days moving in a very narrow band.
Nifty has lost its momentum and faced stiff resistance at 5600 levels. A handful of events are lined up ahead including the fuel price hike, iip data and the RBI policy review later in the month. Breakout from this narrow trading range will give a good move either side.
A fall towards 5400 levels can be utilised for buying and a rally towards 5650 can be used for part booking.
Markets may oscillate in the broader range of 5650 to 5350 and consolidate for some time before taking the upward trajectory towards 5900+ provided it holds the level of 5170.
Conservative Traders sit tight and hold your longs.
Levels to be watched tomm : 5500, 5477 on downside and 5550 on upside.
Nifty has lost its momentum and faced stiff resistance at 5600 levels. A handful of events are lined up ahead including the fuel price hike, iip data and the RBI policy review later in the month. Breakout from this narrow trading range will give a good move either side.
A fall towards 5400 levels can be utilised for buying and a rally towards 5650 can be used for part booking.
Markets may oscillate in the broader range of 5650 to 5350 and consolidate for some time before taking the upward trajectory towards 5900+ provided it holds the level of 5170.
Conservative Traders sit tight and hold your longs.
Levels to be watched tomm : 5500, 5477 on downside and 5550 on upside.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Nifty Update
Nifty resisted at 5600 odd and has now come down to 5500 levels. A clean 100 points.
Anyone who part booked at 5600 as mentioned previously can re-enter near 5480-5500 with a small sl of 5460-5450. Below that nifty may move lower towards 5400+/-
The medium term trend for nifty remains up until it breaches the all important 5170.
targets for this upmove remain at 1) 5720 and 2) 5900+
Levels to watch out on monday would be :
5500 and 5480 on the downside and 5545 and 5580 on the upside.
Anyone who part booked at 5600 as mentioned previously can re-enter near 5480-5500 with a small sl of 5460-5450. Below that nifty may move lower towards 5400+/-
The medium term trend for nifty remains up until it breaches the all important 5170.
targets for this upmove remain at 1) 5720 and 2) 5900+
Levels to watch out on monday would be :
5500 and 5480 on the downside and 5545 and 5580 on the upside.
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