Hi Guys,
Lets look at a few of the asset classes apart from equities before looking at the Nifty Chart and see how they are faring currently. Looking at different asset classes is a good way of getting an alternate perspective into things.
GOLD CHART
Spot Gold Prices after having formed a double top near $1790 have fallen by almost 10% to its current level of $1620. Gold prices continue to remain below their 200 day EMA and are expected to remain weak going forward after being dubbed a "Dead Asset" by countries world over.
SILVER CHART
Silver prices continue to remain weak and have fallen nearly by 15% from 37$/ounce to 31$. Silver prices continued their range bound movement below the 200day EMA which lies at 33$. The outlook remains weak till silver prices can sustain above those levels.
WTI CRUDE
WTI Crude prices after having seen a good upmove have fallen by 8% in the recent time to sub 102 levels. However the prices continue to remain above the 98$ mark wherein lies the 200 day EMA. One can expect Crude prices to remain firm till those levels are held. Any sustained trading below the 98$ mark may considerably weaken crude prices.
USD/ INR
USD/ INR after having tested its support zone at the 200day EMA of 48.50 have rallied by almost 8% to 51 level. USD/INR prices are expected to exhibit more upside going forward. This in a way spells trouble for the Indian Equity markets which may show weakness on the continuing show of strength by the$.
US Treasury (10 Year US Treasury Note Price)
US Treasury prices have largely remained range bound over the recent time and is currently resting at it's support level of 200 day SMA. Holding these levels, one can expect the yields to soften on the US 10 year Treasury note.
A First look at things will show you that practically all asset classes have witnessed some kind of selling whereas the $ has gained in strength in the past few weeks. One should be cautious going forward as this can be taken as Money or Liquidity Distribution and may be a sign of a Global Asset SELL OFF. One should keep a keen eye on these going forward.
In the meantime our sell call on Nifty stands. Nifty has respected the level of 5750 has not managed to breach it. Timewise, i expect the Nifty to be rangebound between 5000 and 5400 for some more time before making the decisive move downards towards our target of 4200.
As per the above chart our Stop loss stands at 5750. Nifty is currently moving in a channel with channel support and the Fibonacci arc support at 5000 levels. This is a shorter term view for the Nifty. The arrow depicts that the break of 5000 will lead us into the lower orbit towards 4400 - 4500. As long as 4950 - 5000 holds we can expect the Nifty to not break down and oscillate between the 5000 - 5400 range. The longer term view of Nifty however remains bearish with targets of 4200.
Lets look at a few of the asset classes apart from equities before looking at the Nifty Chart and see how they are faring currently. Looking at different asset classes is a good way of getting an alternate perspective into things.
GOLD CHART
Spot Gold Prices after having formed a double top near $1790 have fallen by almost 10% to its current level of $1620. Gold prices continue to remain below their 200 day EMA and are expected to remain weak going forward after being dubbed a "Dead Asset" by countries world over.
SILVER CHART
Silver prices continue to remain weak and have fallen nearly by 15% from 37$/ounce to 31$. Silver prices continued their range bound movement below the 200day EMA which lies at 33$. The outlook remains weak till silver prices can sustain above those levels.
WTI CRUDE
WTI Crude prices after having seen a good upmove have fallen by 8% in the recent time to sub 102 levels. However the prices continue to remain above the 98$ mark wherein lies the 200 day EMA. One can expect Crude prices to remain firm till those levels are held. Any sustained trading below the 98$ mark may considerably weaken crude prices.
USD/ INR
USD/ INR after having tested its support zone at the 200day EMA of 48.50 have rallied by almost 8% to 51 level. USD/INR prices are expected to exhibit more upside going forward. This in a way spells trouble for the Indian Equity markets which may show weakness on the continuing show of strength by the$.
US Treasury (10 Year US Treasury Note Price)
US Treasury prices have largely remained range bound over the recent time and is currently resting at it's support level of 200 day SMA. Holding these levels, one can expect the yields to soften on the US 10 year Treasury note.
A First look at things will show you that practically all asset classes have witnessed some kind of selling whereas the $ has gained in strength in the past few weeks. One should be cautious going forward as this can be taken as Money or Liquidity Distribution and may be a sign of a Global Asset SELL OFF. One should keep a keen eye on these going forward.
In the meantime our sell call on Nifty stands. Nifty has respected the level of 5750 has not managed to breach it. Timewise, i expect the Nifty to be rangebound between 5000 and 5400 for some more time before making the decisive move downards towards our target of 4200.
As per the above chart our Stop loss stands at 5750. Nifty is currently moving in a channel with channel support and the Fibonacci arc support at 5000 levels. This is a shorter term view for the Nifty. The arrow depicts that the break of 5000 will lead us into the lower orbit towards 4400 - 4500. As long as 4950 - 5000 holds we can expect the Nifty to not break down and oscillate between the 5000 - 5400 range. The longer term view of Nifty however remains bearish with targets of 4200.
This is really helpful. Thanks a lot for this post.
ReplyDeleteThis is helpful for people like me. I wanted to invest in gold and silver. Now i can wait a bit and wait for the prices to show me whether to invest now or wait for a correction.Thanks again.
ReplyDelete@dee,
ReplyDeleteWelcome. I am glad the post was useful to you.
Hey thanks Ankit :)
ReplyDelete