Thursday, September 19, 2013

NIFTY AMA




NIFTY AMA
RANGE
5 H - AMA
6070
6025
5 L - AMA
5980
5930
5 AMA
6041
5990
13 AMA
5990
6018
21 AMA
5785
5720
34 AMA
5610
5488
89 AMA
5705
5735
144 AMA
5775
5765



NIFTY BANDS :

SUPPORT :         6025 - 6070
RESISTANCE :   6187 - 6229




Fed decides not to taper.  Sensex up by 700 points.  What a Rally !!!!
Is it really a rally or a massive short squeeze to turn everyone on the street bullish?
As expected a positive Fed decision pushed the Nifty beyond the 6000 - 6050 band and even beyond the 6100 zone to almost 6150.

Now the real question is should one buy on dips or sell on rallies???
The question will be answered in a few days as to whether this rally can sustain itself.
Nifty has huge resistance in the 6180 - 6230 zone & above that at 6300 - 6350. We have a multi year resistance sprouting up in these bands.

Buying on dips is out of the question. Let me tell u why.

  • Multi Year Resistance in the congestion zone of 6180 - 6200.
  • Nifty gapped up above the crucial resistance of 5970 - 5980. Which raises a question mark on the inherent strength of this upmove.
  • 13AMA rising fast and catching up on Nifty.

As one can observe from our previous posts, Nifty had a tussle going on with the 13AMA for the past few sessions. The 13AMA has risen very fast and is now placed at the 5990 - 6020 band. This will only rise in the coming few trading sessions and if Nifty has to move up then it has to keep up momentum and rally faster than the 13AMA.
I don't see that happening with a crucial multi year resistance band ahead as a roadblock coupled with the fact that Nifty has shot up by 1000 points in 16 trading sessions. Yes u heard it right.  1000 points in 16 sessions. That indicates a seriously overbought market.
So market will consolidate and not move up in a hurry. Dats the preferred view unless the 6180 - 6200 zone is taken out.
Once the 13AMA shoots up and if the Nifty is unable to keep up with the momentum then one may witness consolidation in Nifty with a negative bias. Confirmation of a new downtrend will only come below 5957, the previous high of the rally.

We will wait for a confirmation from the AMA table to Sell.


Trade as per levels.

Happy Trading !!!









 

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