Nifty Update

Nifty has been oscillating within a range of 200 points and reached the bottom end of the range today near 5450. As mentioned earlier 5400 remains a crucial support for the market and only a sustained closing below the same will alter the bullish set up. Our buy at 5500 stands and we remain positive on the market for the medium term for target of 5900+.  The risk to reward here is highly favourable and i would advise one to go long with an appropriate SL.

P.S: - (This however does not transalate into any bullishness for the long term as our extremely pessimistic view and long term target of new lows in the market remain firm. I will be coming up with an interesting article soon on why one should be bearish on equities as a continuation of our BIG BANG post).

Watch this space for more!!!

Nifty Update

NIFTY IN SUPPORT ZONE

The chart shows a clear uptrend followed by a correction till the support zones. A 20-50 moving average crossover has taken place. Only a move below the support levels of 5450-5400 will alter the bullish set up.

Profit Booking at 5750 helped us lock in our gains and nifty reached near our buy and support level of 5500. 5400-5500 continues to remain a strong support area for the market and we may now expect nifty to rally towards our previous target of 5900+ after having corrected by 250 points (50% retracement) from the profit booking level of 5750.

So the view remains positive and we re-enter our longs at 5500 levels with the stop loss of 5400.

Risk : 100points
Reward : 400 points

Nifty Update

Markets on a linear upmove!!! Up 400 points from our BUY.
Nifty has reached the resistance zone of 5750-5780. I would recommend one to book their profits at these levels and re-enter at lower levels as markets are extremely overbought at the current levels. Nifty has moved up vertically by almost 550 points from its low of 5195 and it would be prudent to book out profits at current levels even though we maintain our  target at 5900+. Part booking is an essential tool in trading and provides one with more ammunition to trade in the market. So book profits and look for buying opportunities near the support regions of 5450-5500  i.e. if that comes :) (a 50% retracement level for the entire upmove provided nifty halts below 5800)

Nifty Update

8 days of Straight UPmove !!!

Nifty has rallied relentlessly from the level of 5250 (the day it made the Flash Low of 5195) to 5650. A vertical rise of 400 points. Markets are now in the overbought region and may find resistance at the 5700 mark as shown in the chart. Profit booking at these levels is advisable and would be the prudent thing to do or one may trail their sl to 5590. The solid support for nifty stands at 5400.

The shift in trend and momentum has taken place as had been mentioned previously. Those holding longs can book their handsome profits and re-enter at lower levels.
Our positional target of 5900+ remains !!!

Nifty Update

WHAT A RALLY !!! NIFTY UP 150...
Markets did today what it does always. SURPRISE EVERYONE!!
While most of the people and analysts on the street were bearish, markets caught them unexpectedly and off guard with a stupendous upmove crossing all the so called resistances.
The triggers for the upmove came on back of the fall in BRENT Crude prices after announcement by IEA ( International Energy Agency ) of releasing upto 60mn barrels over a period of 30days in the market. This is a huge positive for our markets.  ( our refineries are benchmarked to BRENT) and on the news of some reforms being undertaken by EGOM on diesel , kerosene and natural gas prices. That may or may not happen !!!
Markets look overbought in the near term and may face some resistance at the 5500 odd mark and support at 5400 after such a rally. My earlier view and bias remains positive with the same target. However, 2 cases now seem to be developing.
1st case : (Bullish)
Markets have reversed its trend and may rally to 5700 and then 5900+ having protected 5170.
2nd case : (Bearish)
If Nifty is unable to cross 5720+/- , then we may see the markets breaking down towards 5000 odd levels.

My bias remains upwards. However, we will position ourselves as the prices unfold.
Those who are long may continue holding their longs as of now. Enjoy!!!

Nifty Update

Nifty makes FLASH LOW of 5195.....5170 protected !!!

Markets tumbled upto 600 points intraday on news of changes in tax agreement treaty with Mauritius, source of over 40% for India's total FDI. Nifty made intra low of 5195. However, our level of 5170 was not breached. So our longs still stand. The markets are extremely oversold and a bounceback of atleast 200 points in nifty can be possible.

Several positives have started emerging for the Indian economy in this fall. Lets take a look at the reasons as to why the markets may rally.
1. Inflation has been the biggest concern for the Indian markets. With Crude coming off over 20% from its highs it will provide the much needed relief to our markets.
Every 1$/bbl change in the price of crude affects our trade deficit by US $800mn and our gross under recoveries by US $700mn. So crude oil prices coming off is a big positive.
2. Commodity prices have come off and started to cool off with fears of lower demand for them due to a lower than expected global growth esp US and Europe.
3. Better than average monsoon will improve investor sentiment and cool off food prices (atleast temporarily) and bring down inflation.
4. Our markets have underperformed other markets. A bounce back is quite clearly due.
 And the most important of them all.
5. In the case, that Korea and Taiwan are redesignated as "DM", India could be a beneficiary.
 When there was an upgrade of Korea to DM in 2009 and as a result India saw net estimated passive inflow of $234mn, while estimated active funds flows were $934mn. The total India weight increased by 116bps in the MSCI  index. Keep an eye on the meeting today.
If it does happen huge rally will take place. The stage is set for it !!!

My View : Hold onto your longs. Until 5170 is not broken. We may see markets rallying atleast 10% from these levels. Sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

Nifty Update

Markets have been sluggish for quite a few days now with nifty drifting lower to factor in a price and time correction. The 5340 to 5320 level remain the crucial support levels for the market beyond which stands the all important level of 5170.
Price volume trend of nifty suggests accumulation by smart money at current levels.
Hardly anyone now out there expects the market to break the 5600 resistance. The sentiment is bearish.
Nifty has narrowed its range and may oscillate between 5350 and 5450 for the time being. Break of the range will give a good move and an early indication of change in trend and momentum.
Till then trade as per levels.