Nifty Update

Nifty Breaks its Last Support

Nifty has moved down decisively below its last support at 5300. The count has changed. Markets may not see 5900 for a long long time to come now. We will wait for an adequate bounce to short into the markets.

This is no longer a market to buy into. Markets have geared itself to make new lows. The way all blue chip stocks have been beaten down with high volumes suggests that we are already in a bear market.

Brace yourselves. We are in for a speedy ride down!!!

Nifty Update

BUY NIFTY

Nifty has broken its support of 5400 triggering our stop loss.

Though nifty has broken the 61.8% retracement levels of 5400 (which is not a very heartening sign), there is still some hope for the bulls. The last frontier for nifty remains at 5300. Any close below that level will really trigger some major selling and then we will be forced to induce a change in our counts.

Those holding longs can continue to do so with the sl at 5300 or one may re-initiate a buy here with the same sl.

My bias still remains positive even though i may be the only one left so. Last support is 5300.

Nifty Update

Nifty has been oscillating within a range of 200 points and reached the bottom end of the range today near 5450. As mentioned earlier 5400 remains a crucial support for the market and only a sustained closing below the same will alter the bullish set up. Our buy at 5500 stands and we remain positive on the market for the medium term for target of 5900+.  The risk to reward here is highly favourable and i would advise one to go long with an appropriate SL.

P.S: - (This however does not transalate into any bullishness for the long term as our extremely pessimistic view and long term target of new lows in the market remain firm. I will be coming up with an interesting article soon on why one should be bearish on equities as a continuation of our BIG BANG post).

Watch this space for more!!!

Nifty Update

NIFTY IN SUPPORT ZONE

The chart shows a clear uptrend followed by a correction till the support zones. A 20-50 moving average crossover has taken place. Only a move below the support levels of 5450-5400 will alter the bullish set up.

Profit Booking at 5750 helped us lock in our gains and nifty reached near our buy and support level of 5500. 5400-5500 continues to remain a strong support area for the market and we may now expect nifty to rally towards our previous target of 5900+ after having corrected by 250 points (50% retracement) from the profit booking level of 5750.

So the view remains positive and we re-enter our longs at 5500 levels with the stop loss of 5400.

Risk : 100points
Reward : 400 points

Nifty Update

Markets on a linear upmove!!! Up 400 points from our BUY.
Nifty has reached the resistance zone of 5750-5780. I would recommend one to book their profits at these levels and re-enter at lower levels as markets are extremely overbought at the current levels. Nifty has moved up vertically by almost 550 points from its low of 5195 and it would be prudent to book out profits at current levels even though we maintain our  target at 5900+. Part booking is an essential tool in trading and provides one with more ammunition to trade in the market. So book profits and look for buying opportunities near the support regions of 5450-5500  i.e. if that comes :) (a 50% retracement level for the entire upmove provided nifty halts below 5800)

Nifty Update

8 days of Straight UPmove !!!

Nifty has rallied relentlessly from the level of 5250 (the day it made the Flash Low of 5195) to 5650. A vertical rise of 400 points. Markets are now in the overbought region and may find resistance at the 5700 mark as shown in the chart. Profit booking at these levels is advisable and would be the prudent thing to do or one may trail their sl to 5590. The solid support for nifty stands at 5400.

The shift in trend and momentum has taken place as had been mentioned previously. Those holding longs can book their handsome profits and re-enter at lower levels.
Our positional target of 5900+ remains !!!

Nifty Update

WHAT A RALLY !!! NIFTY UP 150...
Markets did today what it does always. SURPRISE EVERYONE!!
While most of the people and analysts on the street were bearish, markets caught them unexpectedly and off guard with a stupendous upmove crossing all the so called resistances.
The triggers for the upmove came on back of the fall in BRENT Crude prices after announcement by IEA ( International Energy Agency ) of releasing upto 60mn barrels over a period of 30days in the market. This is a huge positive for our markets.  ( our refineries are benchmarked to BRENT) and on the news of some reforms being undertaken by EGOM on diesel , kerosene and natural gas prices. That may or may not happen !!!
Markets look overbought in the near term and may face some resistance at the 5500 odd mark and support at 5400 after such a rally. My earlier view and bias remains positive with the same target. However, 2 cases now seem to be developing.
1st case : (Bullish)
Markets have reversed its trend and may rally to 5700 and then 5900+ having protected 5170.
2nd case : (Bearish)
If Nifty is unable to cross 5720+/- , then we may see the markets breaking down towards 5000 odd levels.

My bias remains upwards. However, we will position ourselves as the prices unfold.
Those who are long may continue holding their longs as of now. Enjoy!!!

Nifty Update

Nifty makes FLASH LOW of 5195.....5170 protected !!!

Markets tumbled upto 600 points intraday on news of changes in tax agreement treaty with Mauritius, source of over 40% for India's total FDI. Nifty made intra low of 5195. However, our level of 5170 was not breached. So our longs still stand. The markets are extremely oversold and a bounceback of atleast 200 points in nifty can be possible.

Several positives have started emerging for the Indian economy in this fall. Lets take a look at the reasons as to why the markets may rally.
1. Inflation has been the biggest concern for the Indian markets. With Crude coming off over 20% from its highs it will provide the much needed relief to our markets.
Every 1$/bbl change in the price of crude affects our trade deficit by US $800mn and our gross under recoveries by US $700mn. So crude oil prices coming off is a big positive.
2. Commodity prices have come off and started to cool off with fears of lower demand for them due to a lower than expected global growth esp US and Europe.
3. Better than average monsoon will improve investor sentiment and cool off food prices (atleast temporarily) and bring down inflation.
4. Our markets have underperformed other markets. A bounce back is quite clearly due.
 And the most important of them all.
5. In the case, that Korea and Taiwan are redesignated as "DM", India could be a beneficiary.
 When there was an upgrade of Korea to DM in 2009 and as a result India saw net estimated passive inflow of $234mn, while estimated active funds flows were $934mn. The total India weight increased by 116bps in the MSCI  index. Keep an eye on the meeting today.
If it does happen huge rally will take place. The stage is set for it !!!

My View : Hold onto your longs. Until 5170 is not broken. We may see markets rallying atleast 10% from these levels. Sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

Nifty Update

Markets have been sluggish for quite a few days now with nifty drifting lower to factor in a price and time correction. The 5340 to 5320 level remain the crucial support levels for the market beyond which stands the all important level of 5170.
Price volume trend of nifty suggests accumulation by smart money at current levels.
Hardly anyone now out there expects the market to break the 5600 resistance. The sentiment is bearish.
Nifty has narrowed its range and may oscillate between 5350 and 5450 for the time being. Break of the range will give a good move and an early indication of change in trend and momentum.
Till then trade as per levels.

Nifty Update

The markets have been absolutely range bound for the past few days moving in a very narrow band.
 Nifty has lost its momentum and faced stiff resistance at 5600 levels. A handful of events are lined up ahead including the fuel price hike, iip data and the RBI policy review later in the month. Breakout from this narrow trading range will give a good move either side.
A fall towards 5400 levels can be utilised for buying and a rally towards 5650 can be used for part booking.
Markets may oscillate in the broader range of 5650 to 5350 and consolidate for some time before taking the upward trajectory towards 5900+ provided it holds the level of 5170.
Conservative Traders sit tight and hold your longs.

Levels to be watched tomm :  5500, 5477 on downside and 5550 on upside.

Nifty Update

Nifty resisted at 5600 odd and has now come down to 5500 levels. A clean 100 points.
Anyone who part booked at 5600 as mentioned previously can re-enter near 5480-5500 with a small sl of 5460-5450. Below that nifty may move lower towards 5400+/-
The medium term trend for nifty remains up until it breaches the all important 5170.
targets for this upmove remain at 1) 5720 and 2) 5900+

Levels to watch out on monday would be :
5500 and 5480 on the downside and 5545 and 5580 on the upside.

Nifty Update

Nifty has rallied a straight 200+ points from our buy level of 5330.
It has now entered the resistance zone of 5580-5620. markets look overbought in the shorter time frame and may witness some pullback from these levels. People wanting to part book their profits can do so near those levels or keep a trailing sl of 5535 and re-enter at lower levels near 5420-5440.
The medium term trend however remains intact and so does our tgt of 5900
Book near resistance and enter lower or sit tight with your longs. Suit your style.

Levels to watch out for tomm would be 5587, 5605 on the upside and 5540 and 5510 on the downside.

Nifty Update

BUY NIFTY!!!
Nifty has reached our critical support area of  5300.
One can buy here with the sl of 5170 as mentioned in the previous post. There is extreme pessimism around the corner which really makes me doubt if there is furthur fall left in the markets. 80% of the Open interest build up has been in the price range of 5340-5410, suggesting good accumulation at those levels. Failure to break below 5170 would see a good rally in the markets going forward. The most obvious fall is not so obvious at times leaving alot of people caught unexpected.

Final Call???
Buy NIFTY at 5330 with sl at 5170 for tgt of 5900+
Risk : 160 points
Reward : 600 points 

Nifty Update

Markets look a buy on every dip towards 5300 levels.
Till the markets dont break the recent low of 5177 there is every possibility that one might witness a rally towards a break of the 5900 resistance levels with the markets finding support around the 5300 levels. My trend sheet is showing positive trend for the nifty in the medium term. Any furthur dip in the coming days towards 5300-5350 levels can be utilised for buying with sl at 5180. target remains 5900+

Risk : 200 points
Reward : 600 points

"Markets reward those who act early. The ones who are trapped are the ones who are late"
  - Ankit Solanki  :) 

Nifty Update

Nifty @ 5400.
markets have reached our support area of 5300 - 5400. the false breakout above 5565 provided with a good shorting opportunity as mentioned for a breakdown below our level of 5470. Any further fall towards our support area can be utilised for buying. nifty has gone oversold in the longer time frame and one can expect a good bounce back going forward.
Stay on the buy side. The trend is about to shift.

Nifty Update

Markets have been moving in a very narrow range for the past few days without any decisiveness. Levels to be watched :
5470 ( recent low), 5565 (closing level after the rbi rate hike).
Any movement beyond these two levels will bring about some momentum. However, as the primary trend remains down break of 5565 on the upside will provide a good shorting opportunity. Market support remains in the range of 5300-5400 and any fall to those levels may see some buying coming in.
Trade as per levels, till then sit tight.

Nifty Update

Nifty Hits 5500!!!
The markets have been completely smashed out of place after the RBI rate hike and the swift nature of the fall is an indication that markets may move lower than our targets of 5450-5500. One can book out shorts at 5520 Our tgt is acheived and we've recorded a massive 400points on our short. Any bounce may be swift and volatile. Shorting will be advisable only if markets take a reasonable bounce with a small and strict sl. However, 5200-5300 remains a good support area for the market. Any further fall to those levels can give a good buying opportunity. Keep your eyes open!!

5920 Short Closed - Reward : 400points

Nifty Update

RBI adopts a hawkish stance:  announces a 50bps hike in Repo & Reverse Repo Rate

• Repo rate hiked 50bps to 7.25%
• Reverse Repo hiked 50bps to 6.25%
• CRR remains unchanged at 6%
• MSF rate fixed 100 bps higher at 8.25%
• Savings bank deposit interest rate increased from 3.5% to 4%

The 50bps hike in rates is a dampener for the markets.

As mentioned in the previous post, Nifty traced our 1st possibility and has broken down without crossing our levels.
Nifty has made a low of around 5620 after the RBI announcement.  Expect 5580 levels to give some support to the markets for the time being considering the oversold zone nifty is in and open interest addition in 5600 and 5500PE. This might be the 7th consecutive negative closing for nifty. So a dead cat bounce can be expected. Exit all weak longs in any such rally.
Our short term tgt of 5450-5500 remains intact. sl updated to 5810 from 5890
Our short at 5920 has yielded close to 300points....enjoy!!

Nifty Update

Nifty after moving up from sub 5700 levels has taken resistance exactly near our levels of 5890 with 3 day closing of 5885,5875,5869. Price/Vol patterns suggest distribution has taken place at these levels. 2 possibilities now exist.
Poss 1: nifty may head straight down from here without crossing the 5900 resistance.
Poss 2: nifty may  take a false break out above 5900-5910 and then head down.

A break out will occur only above 6030 levels till then mkts may oscillate and eventually head down towards our tgt of 5450-5500.
BE ON THE SHORT SIDE!!!!

(p.s. :- rbi monetary meet on 3rd may. price/vol action in options before this will lead the way)

Nifty Update

Our Nifty Short at 5920 has yielded almost 200points with the markets crashing today from its intra high of 5900 to sub 5720 levels. Our short tgt of 5450-5500 still remains intact. However, one may now shift the stop loss from 6070 to 5890 where the major resistance for the nifty now stands. One witnessed huge open interest build up in 5900 & 5800 calls implying resistance there coupled with the fact that the markets broke down after trying to cross the 5900-5920 levels more than a couple of times. Momentum has shifted to the downside.
 Enjoy the shorts!!!

Nifty Update

Good morning to all of you.
First of all apologies for the delayed gap in the market update. Have been really busy with work. Im gonna try and update as regulary as possible henceforth.
Now getting back to the markets.
Nifty has seen a spectacular upmove to 5900 levels straight from 5400 levels.
After having repeatedly maintained a target of 5900+ since the month of february, nifty finally acheived the target (but not before triggering our stop loss twice)  :)
Nifty now is in overbought zone with negative divergences with the trending upmove over. The outlook on the markets now remains negative. SELL ON RISES.
The resistance levels for nifty now come in at 5920, 5950 and 6020.
Markets may move sideways with a lot of whipsaws before breaking down to 5500 levels. So i advise one to short and sit tight with it until the tgt is achieved or the sl is triggered.

Current View : SELL ON RISES.
Final Call???
Sell Nifty at 5920 with tgt of 5450 and sl of  6070
Risk = 150pts Reward = 450pts

Nifty Update

Nifty ended the week down 87pts on the last day of the week back again to near 5450 levels with fears of the 2G probe widening. As mentioned in the previous post these levels can be used for buying into the markets again with an appropriate sl. With the budget and expiry near the corner one can expect some wild and volatile gyrations in the market.
The short term view however remains up with prices in most of the stocks hammered absolutely out of proportion (the way stocks are beaten in a bear market).
Option writing and open interest suggest support at 5400 and resistance at 5600 for this expiry.

Current level 5460
Final Call???
Buy nifty with sl at 5380 for tgt1 of 5740

Risk = 80 points  Reward = 280 points

Nifty Update

Nifty after triggering our previous stop loss at 5400 and breaking below it to make a low near 5200 levels has moved back to 5550 levels. The markets have moved up by around 350 points from its lows and one can look into buying at slightly lower levels near 5460-5480. Our previous target of 5900+ still looks intact and any fall in the nifty may be used for buying. Keep in mind guys this is just for the short term.
our long term short is yet intact.

Nifty Update

An Absolute Belter of a Call :

Nifty followed our levels and moved exactly (and almost scarily) as pointed out.
Nifty made intra lows near 5420 today and taking support there reversed to close above 5500. A panic bottom may have been made for the short term (see previous update) This is the first sign of a reversal. Now, Holding 5500 in the coming few days and taking out 5550 would confirm the reversal. Our buy is still intact.

Enjoy!!!

Nifty Update

Nifty following our lead and moving as per our levels to the 'T' closed at near 5500 levels,  has now reached our STPT levels after breaching the 5700 mark. (see previous update)
Nifty is quite oversold right now and its the right time to look into buying. Any further fall towards 5420-5450 levels in the coming few days might see Nifty making a panic bottom for the short term which can be used for buying into.
Final Call??
Buy Nifty with closing sl at 5400 with tgt of 5950
Risk = 120 points    Reward = 420 points

Nifty Update

Bull or Bear??
Nifty after taking support at sub 5600 levels has come near its resistance levels of 5780-5820. Any break again below 5700 might take the nifty back to 5600 to sub 5500 levels and any break out above the resistance will take the nifty back to 5900 levels.
We have an interesting few days ahead with 25th being the RBI rate hike decision, 26th being a national holiday and 27th being the expiry.
Markets are cooking up so lets wait for our levels to trade.
Let the cards unfold!!!

Nifty Update

Nifty after bouncing to 5860 (exactly near our pull back level of 5850-5880) has fallen back to sub 5650 levels, pretty close to our short term positional target of 5450-5550.
Note: 5600 put options have witnessed a huge build up of open interest in the current series indicating some support at those levels.

Current View :
Keep your eyes open, a short term BUY maybe on the cards if Nifty falls further to our STPT of 5450-5550.

Nifty Update

Nifty has fallen like a knife from levels of 6150 to present levels close to 5750 since our 'Big Bang Update' in a matter of few days reaping close to 400 points on the short side. A bounce may be probable near levels of 5850-5880 in the short term keeping the rapid fall in mind.
Current View:
 Nifty has fallen sharply on higher volumes indicating that it may be the 3rd wave down. It would be best now to wait on the sideline and look for a turnaround signal near levels of 5450-5550 in the near term.
Till then enjoy the shorts.....

"The Big Bang" Update

Nifty Targeted to BREAK its low of 2500 made in the recent 2008 fall.
Several factors prompt out and signal the eventual fall awaiting the market. Lets analyse them and make some sense out of it all.

1. The overall sentiment prevailing in the market is positive. Its quite easy to recall the overall market sentiment before the 2008 fall where people where absurdly optimistic and unrealistic. Even though  people are cautious presently yet no one is particularly bearish with most of them being clueless.
2. As per long term elliott counting, we seem to be in wave 5 with the same sectors seeing a rally with more volumes indicating that we are yet in the previous bull market. IF NIFTY FAILS TO CROSS the previous high of 6357 in the coming time then we will in most probability witness a breakdown.
3. The 'Election Gap' made at 3800 is yet to be filled. Anyone believing in the Gap Theory ought to expect the nifty to correct atleast to sub 3000 levels, which in itself is a big fall from the current levels.
4. During the global lows in 2008 we had the govt heavily infusing money in the markets when even the roadside dog was bearish. Result? nifty rockets from 2500 to 6000+. In the current scenario, we have the govt selling its stake in every second psu on the pretext of reducing our ballooning fiscal deficit. Its anyone's guess to predict where nifty might land if the reversal holds true.
5. The div yield to P/b ratio before the dramatic 2008 fall had reached a peak of almost 1:6 ratio. The current ratio is hovering close to those levels. So, clearly a correction is largely due.

Nifty current level - 6150
The final call??? SHORT nifty with sl of 6390 for Target1 of 3800.
Risk= 240 points. Reward= 2400 points.